Two recent private opinion polls suggest that Cyprus’s presidential election race remains wide open, with no clear favourite emerging ahead of the first round.
The surveys, conducted by established polling companies for private purposes and reviewed by Phileleftheros, point to a closely contested race. They also show that the battle for centre-right and right-wing voters could play a major role in determining which candidates reach the second round.
Because the final candidates have not yet been confirmed, the polls are based on different possible election scenarios. However, the results provide an early look at how voters could respond to some of the names being discussed.
Mavroyiannis Could Reach the Second Round
One of the clearest findings from the polls is the strong position of Andreas Mavroyiannis.
If Mavroyiannis decides to run for president, the surveys suggest that he could advance to the second round under the scenarios tested.
His position could become weaker if ALMA, led by Odysseas Michaelides, decides to field its own candidate. This is because both candidates could compete for support from voters who are part of the wider opposition camp.
The polling results also appear to reflect an expectation among some voters that Mavroyiannis would receive the backing of AKEL.
A scenario in which Michaelides runs with AKEL support could produce a different result, although such an arrangement currently appears unlikely.
Christodoulides, Demetriou and Neofytou Face Tight Battle
The biggest contest on the right appears to be between President Nikos Christodoulides, DISY President Annita Demetriou and former DISY leader Averof Neofytou.
The polls show that the three could be involved in a very close race for a place in the second round.
When Christodoulides is compared with Demetriou, the difference between them falls within the statistical margin of error. The same is true when Christodoulides is compared with Neofytou.
Christodoulides has a small advantage in both scenarios, but the results suggest that his lead is not large enough to guarantee a second-round place.
The surveys also show that the three politicians appear to have similar levels of support among DISY voters.
This means the final outcome could depend heavily on the candidates who eventually enter the race, the support they receive from political parties and how voters respond during the campaign.
DISY Faces an Important Internal Decision
The polling results also highlight the political challenge facing DISY.
Annita Demetriou and Averof Neofytou appear to be heading towards a close internal contest over the party’s presidential nomination.
At the same time, Christodoulides continues to have considerable influence among DISY supporters. His position could therefore become important as the party considers its strategy.
The question of who will represent DISY could have a major effect on the wider presidential race.
Mavroyiannis Candidacy Gaining Attention
The growing support shown for Mavroyiannis is also likely to attract attention within AKEL.
The polls suggest that his possible candidacy is becoming an increasingly important factor in discussions about the election.
AKEL will therefore have to consider his potential strength as it develops its own strategy for the presidential contest.
If Mavroyiannis eventually enters the race, the identity of his main challenger could become one of the biggest questions of the first round.
Political Alliances Could Change the Race
The eventual candidates and their political alliances will be critical to the outcome.
Political parties are still working through their positions, and several important decisions have not yet been made.
The situation could also change depending on the issues that dominate public debate in the months ahead.
Developments surrounding the Cyprus problem, the economy and any major national crisis could all influence voter behaviour.
The performance of the government could also become an important factor as voters assess the candidates.
Cyprus Political Parties Prepare for Major Decisions
Cyprus is entering a period of political change as parties prepare for the presidential election.
Christodoulides recently reshuffled his cabinet, with the move expected to strengthen the relationship between his government and DIKO ahead of the election.
There is also uncertainty over whether DIKO will remain closely aligned with the government throughout the election period.
EDEK is dealing with its own internal discussions and has expressed concerns about what it considers a reduced role following the cabinet reshuffle.
DIPA has also raised concerns about the process.
Meanwhile, DISY faces important decisions about both its presidential candidate and potentially its party leadership.
AKEL is expected to begin its internal discussions about the presidential election from September.
ELAM is also preparing for an electoral congress in November, while its position on the presidential race remains open.
ALMA is seeking to establish itself as a stronger political force, although its plans for the presidential election are not yet fully clear.
Presidential Race Could Become More Competitive
The latest polling does not point to a settled presidential race.
Instead, it shows that several candidates could have a realistic chance of reaching the second round, depending on how the political alliances develop.
Mavroyiannis appears to have a strong base, while Christodoulides, Demetriou and Neofytou are closely matched in several scenarios.
However, these are early indications rather than a final prediction.
The number of candidates, party endorsements, campaign issues and voter sentiment could all change the race significantly before election day.
For now, the polls suggest that Cyprus is heading towards a competitive presidential election in which the battle for second place could be just as important as the fight for first.
